Why are heart disease and dental health related?

Some years ago people became excited about the news that poor dental health, particularly gum disease, and heart disease are correlated. Not only that, but gum disease develops first! Post hoc ergo propter hoc ("after this, therefore because of this") right?

Soon we started hearing advice to take good care of our teeth (by brushing and flossing), because it will help us avoid heart disease. Meanwhile, scientists started looking for mechanisms behind this putative ability of oral bacteria to effect your cardiovascular health.

Not only has a causal relationship not been established, but, in my opinion it's highly unlikely, because there is a simpler explanation.

Correlation and causation

Suppose we have two things that are correlated: they happen so often together that they look like they might have a causal relationship.

There are several kinds of relationships that could be happening:

• The correlation is spurious. It's pure coincidence. They are not causally related at all, even though they happen together so often it looks like it isn't random.

  That's the thing about randomness. There is variability in it. A huge dataset is going to have some patterns in it, even though those patterns are no good for predicting future data [1].

If there really is a correlation, so that one can be used to predict the other when new data comes in, then there are still multiple possible underlying relationships, including:

• One causes the other.

  Something about the process of heart disease increases the risk of gum disease, or something about the process of gum disease increases the risk heart disease.

• A third thing causes both.

  There is something that elevates the risk of both gum disease and heart disease.

In this post, I suggest a hypothesis in this category. It goes like this:

• Fermentable carbohydrates (those that break down in the mouth, i.e. sugars and starches) cause tooth decay, unhealthy dental plaque, and gum disease.
• Eating carbohydrates increases the risk of heart disease.
• Therefore the correlation between gum disease and and heart disease may be due to a common causal factor.

It could well be that dental disease simply manifests faster, which would mean you can use it as a warning sign. Covering up the evidence with extensive oral hygiene routines wouldn't address the real problem.

Fermentable carbohydrates cause tooth decay and gum disease

What are fermentable carbohydrates? They are certain sugars, including the simple sugars glucose and fructose, and the sugars that result from starches that begin digestion in the mouth through amylase, particularly maltose [2].

Cavities form when bacteria in plaque ferment carbohydrates into acid, lowering the pH of dental plaque below a critical level that results in demineralisation of tooth enamel. The bacterial species that do this thrive best in the resulting acidic environment, which is hostile to other species. So fermentable carbohydrates both provide fuel for the bacteria, and when metabolised create a selective environment for them. [3], [4].

Plaque itself accumulates to excess because of those same fermentable carbohydrates. Periodontal disease (gum disease) is an inflammatory response to bacterial products in dental plaque [5].

Carbohydrate and heart disease

We already know that a low carb diet has a better effect on heart disease risk factors than any other intervention. If you have metabolic syndrome, then a low carb diet is the best treatment. Therefore, conversely, eating a lot of carbohydrates increases your risk comparatively.

Moreover, poor dental health is so correlated with diabetes (the canonical metabolic syndrome disease) that some authors have called periodontitis a complication of diabetes [6]. The ability of scientists to uphold such a backwards concept is hard to comprehend.

Here's a particularly ridiculous promotion of that idea from the American Dental Association. If I didn't find it such an irresponsible abuse of authority, I'd be laughing hysterically [7].

What does dental disease signify and what should you do about it?

It's my contention that dental disease is a risk factor for heart disease and diabetes and all other diseases secondary to metabolic syndrome, but not because dental disease is a cause of those; rather because it is a fast manifesting symptom of a detrimental diet.

While writing this post, I came upon an article proposing the same idea [8]. I don't have full access to the paper, but here is the abstract:

"Two contradictory hypotheses on the role of dietary carbohydrates in health and disease shape how dental-systemic associations are regarded. On one side, Cleave and Yudkin postulated that excessive dietary fermentable carbohydrate intake led—in the absence of dental interventions such as fluorides—first to dental diseases and then to systemic diseases. Under this hypothesis, dental and systemic diseases shared—as a common cause—a diet of excess fermentable carbohydrates. Dental diseases were regarded as an alarm bell for future systemic diseases, and restricting carbohydrate intake prevented both dental and systemic diseases. On the opposite side, Keys postulated the lipid hypothesis: that excessive dietary lipid intake caused systemic diseases. Keys advocated a diet high in fermentable carbohydrate for the benefit of general health, and dental diseases became regarded as local dietary side effects. Because general health takes precedence over dental health when it comes to dietary recommendations, dental diseases became viewed as local infections; interventions such as fluorides, sealants, oral hygiene, antimicrobials, and dental fillings became synonymous with maintaining dental health, and carbohydrates were no longer considered as a common cause for dental-systemic diseases. These opposing dietary hypotheses have increasingly been put to the test in clinical trials. The emerging trial results favor Cleave-Yudkin’s hypothesis and may affect preventive approaches for dental and systemic diseases."

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If you have dental plaque accumulation, tooth decay, or gum disease, don't brush it off. It's a warning to you that your diet is unhealthy.

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Footnotes and References

[1]

That's why you should never trust a study that takes all of its data and reports a correlation, without holding out some of the data (and not peeking!) and showing that the relationship found in the first set also holds in the second set. Think NHANES. Even then you have to trust the scientists that they didn't look at the second set before coming up with the hypothesis. Even then, you have to take into account that again by random chance the pattern held in the first set also holds in the second.

[2]

Evidence type: review Food starches and dental caries Lingström P, van Houte J, Kashket S. Crit Rev Oral Biol Med. 2000;11(3):366-80. "In general, it is only the gelatinized starches that are susceptible to enzymatic breakdown, i.e., are bioavailable. In the human mouth, starches can be hydrolyzed by salivary and bacterial amylases into maltose, maltotriose, and low-molecular-weight dextrins (Mbrmann and Muhlemann, 1981). Starch hydrolysis on the teeth is very rapidly initiated, and entrapped particles of food can accumulate high levels of maltose and maltotriose, which are good substrates for bacterial acid production (Neff, 1967; Imfeld, 1983; Kashket et al., 1994, 1996). Maltose fermentation requires bacterial adaptation under certain conditions (Kashket et al., 1994). In humans, however, plaque bacteria appear to be adapted and can ferment this sugar without delay (Neff, 1967; Imfeld, 1983; Lingstrbm et al., 1993a)."

[3]

Evidence type: review Dental plaque as a biofilm and a microbial community – implications for health and disease Philip D, Marsh BMC Oral Health20066(Suppl 1):S14 DOI: 10.1186/1472-6831-6-S1-S14 "Clinical studies have shown that caries is associated with increases in the proportions of acidogenic and aciduric (acid-tolerating) bacteria, especially mutans streptococci (such as S. mutans and S. sobrinus) and lactobacilli, which are capable of demineralizing enamel [16, 17, 18, 19]. These bacteria can rapidly metabolize dietary sugars to acid, creating locally a low pH. These organisms grow and metabolize optimally at low pH. Under such conditions they become more competitive, whereas most species associated with enamel health are sensitive to acidic environmental conditions. However, although mutans streptococci are strongly implicated with caries, the association is not unique; caries can occur in the apparent absence of these species, while mutans streptococci can persist without evidence of detectable demineralization [20, 13]. Indeed, in such circumstances, some acidogenic, non-mutans streptococci are implicated with disease [18, 21, 22]. Detailed studies of the glycolytic activity of a large number of oral streptococci have shown that some strains of non-mutans streptococci(e.g. S. mitis biovar 1 and S. oralis) can still metabolize sugars to acid at a moderately low environmental pH at rates comparable to those achieved by mutans streptococci[15]. ... "Caries is a result of changes in the environment due to acid production from the fermentation of dietary carbohydrates, which selects for acidogenic and acid-tolerating species such as mutans streptococci and lactobacilli."

[4]

Evidence type: review Sugars and dental caries Riva Touger-Decker and Cor van Loveren Am J Clin Nutr October 2003 vol. 78 no. 4 881S-892S "Caries is caused by the dissolution of the teeth by acid produced by the metabolism of dietary carbohydrates by oral bacteria. The 2 primary bacteria involved in caries formation are mutans streptococci and lactobacilli. ... "The caries process can be described as loss of mineral (demineralization) when the pH of plaque drops below the critical pH value of 5.5; the critical value for enamel dissolution is 5–6, and an average pH of 5.5 (8, 9) is the generally accepted value. Redisposition of mineral (remineralization) occurs when the pH of plaque rises."

[5]

Evidence type: authority Periodontal (Gum) Disease: Causes, Symptoms, and Treatments NIH "The longer plaque and tartar are on teeth, the more harmful they become. The bacteria cause inflammation of the gums that is called “gingivitis.” In gingivitis, the gums become red, swollen and can bleed easily. Gingivitis is a mild form of gum disease that can usually be reversed with daily brushing and flossing, and regular cleaning by a dentist or dental hygienist. This form of gum disease does not include any loss of bone and tissue that hold teeth in place. Periodontitis When gingivitis is not treated, it can advance to “periodontitis” (which means “inflammation around the tooth”). In periodontitis, gums pull away from the teeth and form spaces (called “pockets”) that become infected. The body’s immune system fights the bacteria as the plaque spreads and grows below the gum line. Bacterial toxins and the body’s natural response to infection start to break down the bone and connective tissue that hold teeth in place. If not treated, the bones, gums, and tissue that support the teeth are destroyed. The teeth may eventually become loose and have to be removed."

[6]	Evidence type: epidemiology Periodontal disease: The sixth complication of diabetes Löe H1. Diabetes Care. 1993 Jan;16(1):329-34.

[7]

I should acknowledge that a Cochrane review did find a very modest and possibly transient lowering of HbA1C after treatment for periodontitis. So the pamphlet is not completely baseless. However, it strikes me as a bit like the advice to lower salt for blood pressure, in that it has at best a very small effect and that effect is on one symptom, and that effect is negligible in comparison with the effect of lowering dietary carbohydrates. So not only is it unclear whether the effect is systemic — whether that would translate into an effect in further outcomes, but more importantly, it distracts from the fact that there is a way to effect HbA1c in a strong reliable way. This is why I see it as laughable and irresponsible. Evidence type: meta-analysis Treatment of periodontal disease for glycaemic control in people with diabetes mellitus Simpson TC, Weldon JC, Worthington HV, Needleman I, Wild SH, Moles DR, Stevenson B, Furness S, Iheozor-Ejiofor Z. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2015 Nov 6;11:CD004714. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD004714.pub3. "Abstract BACKGROUND: Glycaemic control is a key issue in the care of people with diabetes mellitus (DM). Periodontal disease is the inflammation and destruction of the underlying supporting tissues of the teeth. Some studies have suggested a bidirectional relationship between glycaemic control and periodontal disease. This review updates the previous version published in 2010. OBJECTIVES: The objective is to investigate the effect of periodontal therapy on glycaemic control in people with diabetes mellitus. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following electronic databases: the Cochrane Oral Health Group Trials Register (to 31 December 2014), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (Cochrane Library 2014, Issue 11), MEDLINE via OVID (1946 to 31 December 2014), EMBASE via OVID (1980 to 31 December 2014), LILACS via BIREME (1982 to 31 December 2014), and CINAHL via EBSCO (1937 to 31 December 2014). ZETOC (1993 to 31 December 2014) and Web of Knowledge (1990 to 31 December 2014) were searched for conference proceedings. Additionally, two periodontology journals were handsearched for completeness, Annals of Periodontology (1996 to 2003) and Periodontology 2000 (1993 to 2003). We searched the US National Institutes of Health Trials Registry (http://clinicaltrials.gov) and the WHO Clinical Trials Registry Platform for ongoing trials. No restrictions were placed on the language or date of publication when searching the electronic databases. SELECTION CRITERIA: We searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of people with type 1 or type 2 DM (T1DM/T2DM) with a diagnosis of periodontitis. Interventions included periodontal treatments such as mechanical debridement, surgical treatment and antimicrobial therapy. Two broad comparisons were proposed:1. periodontal therapy versus no active intervention/usual care;2. periodontal therapy versus alternative periodontal therapy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: For this review update, at least two review authors independently examined the titles and abstracts retrieved by the search, selected the included trials, extracted data from included trials and assessed included trials for risk of bias.Our primary outcome was blood glucose levels measured as glycated (glycosylated) haemoglobin assay (HbA1c).Our secondary outcomes included adverse effects, periodontal indices (bleeding on probing (BOP), clinical attachment level (CAL), gingival index (GI), plaque index (PI) and probing pocket depth (PPD)), cost implications and diabetic complications. MAIN RESULTS: We included 35 studies (including seven from the previous version of the review), which included 2565 participants in total. All studies used a parallel RCT design, and 33 studies (94%) only targeted T2DM patients. There was variation between studies with regards to included age groups (ages 18 to 80), duration of follow-up (3 to 12 months), use of antidiabetic therapy, and included participants' baseline HbA1c levels (from 5.5% to 13.1%).We assessed 29 studies (83%) as being at high risk of bias, two studies (6%) as being at low risk of bias, and four studies (11%) as unclear. Thirty-four of the studies provided data suitable for analysis under one or both of the two comparisons.Comparison 1: low quality evidence from 14 studies (1499 participants) comparing periodontal therapy with no active intervention/usual care demonstrated that mean HbA1c was 0.29% lower (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.48% to 0.10% lower) 3 to 4 months post-treatment, and 0.02% lower after 6 months (five studies, 826 participants; 95% CI 0.20% lower to 0.16% higher).Comparison 2: 21 studies (920 participants) compared different periodontal therapies with each other. There was only very low quality evidence for the multiple head-to-head comparisons, the majority of which were unsuitable to be pooled, and provided no clear evidence of a benefit for one periodontal intervention over another. We were able to pool the specific comparison between scaling and root planing (SRP) plus antimicrobial versus SRP and there was no consistent evidence that the addition of antimicrobials to SRP was of any benefit to delivering SRP alone (mean HbA1c 0.00% lower: 12 studies, 450 participants; 95% CI 0.22% lower to 0.22% higher) at 3-4 months post-treatment, or after 6 months (mean HbA1c 0.04% lower: five studies, 206 patients; 95% CI 0.41% lower to 0.32% higher).Less than half of the studies measured adverse effects. The evidence was insufficient to conclude whether any of the treatments were associated with harm. No other patient-reported outcomes (e.g. quality of life) were measured by the included studies, and neither were cost implications or diabetic complications.Studies showed varying degrees of success with regards to achieving periodontal health, with some showing high levels of residual inflammation following treatment. Statistically significant improvements were shown for all periodontal indices (BOP, CAL, GI, PI and PPD) at 3-4 and 6 months in comparison 1; however, this was less clear for individual comparisons within the broad category of comparison 2. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is low quality evidence that the treatment of periodontal disease by SRP does improve glycaemic control in people with diabetes, with a mean percentage reduction in HbA1c of 0.29% at 3-4 months; however, there is insufficient evidence to demonstrate that this is maintained after 4 months.There was no evidence to support that one periodontal therapy was more effective than another in improving glycaemic control in people with diabetes mellitus.In clinical practice, ongoing professional periodontal treatment will be required to maintain clinical improvements beyond 6 months. Further research is required to determine whether adjunctive drug therapies should be used with periodontal treatment. Future RCTs should evaluate this, provide longer follow-up periods, and consider the inclusion of a third 'no treatment' control arm.Larger, well conducted and clearly reported studies are needed in order to understand the potential of periodontal treatment to improve glycaemic control among people with diabetes mellitus. In addition, it will be important in future studies that the intervention is effective in reducing periodontal inflammation and maintaining it at lowered levels throughout the period of observation."

[8]	Evidence type: review Dietary Carbohydrates and Dental-Systemic Diseases P. Hujoel JDR June 2009 vol. 88 no. 6 490-502

The Ketogenic Diet's Effect on Cortisol Metabolism

(Related post: Red Light, Green Light: responses to cortisol levels in keto vs. longevity research)

One of the myths surrounding ketogenic diets comes from misunderstanding the role of cortisol — the "stress hormone".

In a previous post, we addressed one of the arguments behind this myth: the idea that to activate gluconeogenesis (to make glucose out of protein), extra cortisol must be recruited. That is just factually incorrect, as we showed in the post.

The other argument, which we address here, is more complex.

Like the previous cortisol myth, it involves a faulty chain of reasoning. Here are the steps:

1. Ketogenic diets may raise certain measures of cortisol.
2. Chronically elevated cortisol is correlated with metabolic sydrome, and therefore higher cortisol measures may indicate the onset of metabolic syndrome.
3. Therefore, ketogenic diets could cause metabolic syndrome.

Metabolic syndrome is a terrible and prevalent problem today. It is that cluster of symptoms most strongly identified with diabetes — excess abdominal fat, high blood sugar, and a particular cholesterol profile — but also correlated with other life-threatening conditions such as heart disease and cancer.

In this post, we're going to explain some of the specifics of cortisol metabolism. We'll show how this argument is vague, and how clarifying it leads to the opposite conclusion. The confusion may all stem from misunderstanding one important fact: different measures of cortisol are not equivalent.

First, though, there is an important reason why the argument doesn't make sense.

We already know that a ketogenic diet effectively treats metabolic syndrome. As we will describe below, it turns out that certain cortisol patterns are strongly linked to metabolic syndrome, and might even be a cause of metabolic syndrome. If the cortisol pattern that develops in response to a ketogenic diet were the kind that was associated with metabolic syndrome, then we would expect people on ketogenic diets to show signs of abdominal fat gain, rising blood sugar, and a worsening cholesterol profile, but we see the opposite. This by itself makes it highly unlikely that ketogenic diets raise cortisol in a harmful way.

In other words, because cortisol regulation is so deeply connected to metabolic syndrome, the fact that ketogenic diets reverse symptoms of metabolic syndrome is itself strong evidence that they improve cortisol metabolism.

In Brief

• There are many different measures of cortisol, because researchers have identified many different processes in cortisol metabolism.
• Increases in some of those measurements are consistently linked to metabolic syndrome, and others are not.
• Some researchers believe that cortisol dysregulation is a key underlying factor in metabolic syndrome.
• The cornerstone of this connection may be the activity of an enzyme, 11β-HSD1. It converts from the inactive form cortisone to the active cortisol.
• In metabolic syndrome, 11β-HSD1 is underactive in liver tissue and overactive in fat tissue. This results in a high rate of cortisol clearance, and low rate of regeneration.
• These symptoms of cortisol dysregulation associated with metabolic syndrome were found to be reversed by a keto diet in a study that made the necessary measurements.

Does a ketogenic diet raise cortisol?

Boston Children's Hospital graphic (with our markup in black). Click for the original.

In a widely-cited study [1], from the Harvard-affiliated Boston Children's Hospital, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, three different diets were tested: a low-fat diet, a low-carb diet, and a low-glycemic-index diet. The study showed that the different diets had substantially different metabolic effects, with the low-carbohydrate diet having the best results. To our surprise, the researchers then recommended the low-glycemic-index diet instead. As they explained in the accompanying press release:

“The very low-carbohydrate diet produced the greatest improvements in metabolism, but with an important caveat: This diet increased participants' cortisol levels, which can lead to insulin resistance and cardiovascular disease.”

The Boston Children's Hospital then went on to produce a graphic advising patients to follow the low-glycemic-index diet, and giving this as the primary reason not to choose the low-carb diet. Here is that graphic, which we've marked (in black) to show our disagreement. (Click for the full version without our markup.)

The cortisol levels are an understandable concern, because high urinary cortisol has been epidemiologically associated with a greatly increased risk of death from heart attacks [2].

However, because a ketogenic diet effectively treats metabolic syndrome, we should expect that it also reduces those specific cortisol patterns that are associated with metabolic syndrome (and therefore heart disease). As we show below, this has, in fact, been found.

How is cortisol associated with metabolic syndrome?

Just as we now understand that measuring an individual's total cholesterol without looking at its component parts is inadequate for assessing cardiovascular health, there are different ways to measure cortisol, and only specific patterns of measurements are found with metabolic syndrome.

Cortisol can be measured in fluids, such as urine, saliva, or blood. Within those fluids, the amount of free cortisol can be measured, but so can cortisone, the inactive form, or the metabolites that are the result of enzyme action, and the ratios of any of these to the others can be measured (see Figure 1). Moreover, these measurements have a diurnal rhythm, being higher and lower at different times of the day.

The enzyme 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (11β-HSD) can convert back and forth between cortisol and cortisone. 11β-HSD1—a subtype of 11β-HSD—converts cortisone to cortisol. When inactive cortisone is converted to the active cortisol, it is called regeneration. The other enzymes in the illustration break cortisone or cortisol down into metabolites. That process is called clearance. It turns out that measurements of these enzyme are important for evaluating cortisol metabolism.

The cortisol profile that has been associated with metabolic syndrome includes the following characteristics:

• high cortisol production rates [3].
• high cortisol clearance rates [4], [5].
• high 11β-HSD1 expression in fat cells, and low 11β-HSD1 expression in the liver [6], [7], which determines when and where cortisol is regenerated.

Similarly to the way total cholesterol measurement is correlated with heart disease, but only because it is roughly correlated with more informative cholesterol measurements, 24-hour urinary cortisol may be a proxy for production or clearance, but a poor one [3], [4], [7].

Cortisol levels are affected by production, but they are also affected by regeneration and clearance. In other words, if regeneration were increased, or clearance decreased, levels could go up even if production stayed the same or went down. (We previously discussed a similar situation with blood glucose and faulty inference about glucose production rates.) This means that levels can look similar, even when cortisol metabolism is very different.

Implication for those following the “adrenal fatigue” hypothesis: if you measure your cortisol, and it is high, you can't conclude that your adrenal glands are working correspondingly hard. It could be due to increased regeneration and reduced clearance by enzyme activity. Higher cortisol could actually mean the adrenals are working less!

In obesity, it appears that production goes up to compensate for high clearance and impaired regeneration, although sometimes not enough to compensate; blood cortisol is sometimes actually lower in obese subjects [8].

How does a ketogenic diet affect the relevant cortisol measures?

In [9], investigators put obese men on either a high-fat/low-carb (fat 66%, carb 4%) or a moderate-fat/moderate-carb (fat 35%, carb 35%) diet ad libitum (eating as much as they wanted). Note that both diets had the same protein percent, and both were lower carb than a standard American diet, but only the high-fat/low-carb diet was at ketogenically low levels.

For the high-fat/low-carb group, “the metabolic syndrome pattern” was reversed: blood cortisol went up, clearance went down, and regeneration went up. This was apparently due to an increase of 11β-HSD1 activity in liver tissue.

(Activity of 11β-HSD1 did not go down in fat tissue of those subjects, but the authors point out that the activity in fat tissue tends to go down when more fat is eaten, and the high-fat/low-carb group weren't actually eating more fat in absolute terms than at baseline, only lower carb.)

This reversal didn't happen in the moderate-fat/moderate-carb group, even though they lost a similar amount of weight.

So the ketogenic diet actually improved the cortisol profile of the participants, making it less like the cortisol profile seen in metabolic syndrome.

Summary

There is some reason to believe that cortisol dysregulation is a key underlying factor in metabolic syndrome [10], [11]. The dysregulation has a particular pattern that seems to be caused by a tissue-specific expression of the enzyme 11β-HSD1.

There is a belief among some researchers that ketogenic diets worsen cortisol metabolism (which could lead to metabolic syndrome and heart disease), but an examination of the specific pattern of cortisol metabolism related to metabolic sydrome shows the opposite.

This is what should have been expected in the first place, since ketogenic diets have already been shown to improve insulin sensitivity (the defining symptom of metabolic syndrome) in repeated randomized controlled trials.

One mechanism by which keto diet improves metabolic syndrome may be its beneficial effect on cortisol metabolism.

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Further Reading

For a review of 11β-HSD1, see:

11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 1: translational and therapeutic aspects.

Gathercole LL, Lavery GG, Morgan SA, Cooper MS, Sinclair AJ, Tomlinson JW, Stewart PM.

Endocr Rev. 2013 Aug;34(4):525-55. doi: 10.1210/er.2012-1050. Epub 2013 Apr 23.

References:

[1]

Evidence type: controlled experiment Effects of dietary composition on energy expenditure during weight-loss maintenance. Ebbeling CB, Swain JF, Feldman HA, Wong WW, Hachey DL, Garcia-Lago E, Ludwig DS. JAMA. 2012 Jun 27;307(24):2627-34. doi: 10.1001/jama.2012.6607. (Emphases ours) "Participants Overweight and obese young adults (n=21). "Interventions After achieving 10 to 15% weight loss on a run-in diet, participants consumed low-fat (LF; 60% of energy from carbohydrate, 20% fat, 20% protein; high glycemic load), low-glycemic index (LGI; 40%-40%-20%; moderate glycemic load), and very-low-carbohydrate (VLC; 10%-60%-30%; low glycemic load) diets in random order, each for 4 weeks. … "Hormones and Components of the Metabolic Syndrome (Table 3) "Serum leptin was highest with the LF diet (14.9 [12.1 to 18.4] ng/mL), intermediate with the LGI diet (12.7 [10.3 to 15.6] ng/mL) and lowest with the VLC diet (11.2 [9.1 to 13.8] ng/mL; P=0.0006). Cortisol excretion measured with a 24-hour urine collection (LF: 50 [41 to 60] μg/d; LGI: 60 [49 to 73] μg/d; VLC: 71 [58 to 86] μg/d; P=0.005) and serum TSH (LF: 1.27 [1.01 to 1.60] μIU/mL; LGI: 1.22 [0.97 to 1.54] μIU/mL; VLC: 1.11 [0.88 to 1.40] μIU/mL; P=0.04) also differed in a linear fashion by glycemic load. Serum T3 was lower with the VLC diet compared to the other two diets (LF: 121 [108 to 135] ng/dL; LGI: 123 [110 to 137] ng/dL; VLC: 108 [96 to 120] ng/dL; P=0.006). "Regarding components of the metabolic syndrome, indexes of peripheral (P=0.02) and hepatic (P=0.03) insulin sensitivity were lowest with the LF diet. Serum HDL-cholesterol (LF: 40 [35 to 45] mg/dL; LGI: 45 [41 to 50] mg/dL; VLC: 48 [44 to 53] mg/dL; P<0.0001), triglycerides (LF: 107 [87 to 131] mg/dL; LGI: 87 [71 to 106] mg/dL; VLC: 66 [54 to 81] mg/dL; P<0.0001), and PAI-1 (LF: 1.39 [0.94 to 2.05] ng/mL; LGI: 1.15 [0.78 to 1.71] ng/mL; VLC: 1.01 [0.68 to 1.49] ng/mL; P for trend=0.04) were most favorable with the VLC diet and least favorable with the LF diet. … "Although the very low-carbohydrate diet produced the greatest improvements in most metabolic syndrome components examined here, we identified two potentially deleterious effects of this diet. Twenty-four hour urinary cortisol excretion, a hormonal measure of stress, was highest with the very low-carbohydrate diet. Consistent with this finding, Stimson et al reported increased whole-body regeneration of cortisol by 11β-HSD1 and reduced inactivation of cortisol by 5α-and 5β-reductases over 4 weeks on a VLC vs. a moderate-carbohydrate diet. Higher cortisol levels may promote adiposity, insulin resistance, and cardiovascular disease, as observed in epidemiological studies." Comment: It is ironic that the authors bring up Stimson et al. as an example of a study that corroborates their findings. This is the very study [9] that, in our opinion, exonerates the VLC diet with respect to cortisol.

[2]

Evidence type: epidemiological observation Urinary cortisol and six-year risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Vogelzangs N, Beekman AT, Milaneschi Y, Bandinelli S, Ferrucci L, Penninx BW. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2010 Nov;95(11):4959-64. doi: 10.1210/jc.2010-0192. Epub 2010 Aug 25. "Context: The stress hormone cortisol has been linked with unfavorable cardiovascular risk factors, but longitudinal studies examining whether high levels of cortisol predict cardiovascular mortality are largely absent. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine whether urinary cortisol levels predict all-cause and cardiovascular mortality over 6 yr of follow-up in a general population of older persons. Design and Setting: Participants were part of the InCHIANTI study, a prospective cohort study in the older general population with 6 yr of follow-up. Participants: We studied 861 participants aged 65 yr and older. Main Outcome Measure: Twenty-four-hour urinary cortisol levels were assessed at baseline. In the following 6 yr, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was ascertained from death certificates. Cardiovascular mortality included deaths due to ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. Results: During a mean follow-up of 5.7 (sd = 1.2) yr, 183 persons died, of whom 41 died from cardiovascular disease. After adjustment for sociodemographics, health indicators, and baseline cardiovascular disease, urinary cortisol did not increase the risk of noncardiovascular mortality, but it did increase cardiovascular mortality risk. Persons in the highest tertile of urinary cortisol had a five times increased risk of dying of cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio = 5.00; 95% confidence interval = 2.02–12.37). This effect was found to be consistent across persons with and without cardiovascular disease at baseline (p interaction = 0.78). Conclusions: High cortisol levels strongly predict cardiovascular death among persons both with and without preexisting cardiovascular disease. The specific link with cardiovascular mortality, and not other causes of mortality, suggests that high cortisol levels might be particularly damaging to the cardiovascular system."

[3]

Evidence type: experiment Enhanced cortisol production rates, free cortisol, and 11β-HSD-1 expression correlate with visceral fat and insulin resistance in men: effect of weight loss Jonathan Q. Purnell, Steven E. Kahn, Mary H. Samuels, David Brandon, D. Lynn Loriaux, and John D. Brunzell Am J Physiol Endocrinol Metab. 2009 February; 296(2): E351–E357. "Controversy exists as to whether endogenous cortisol production is associated with visceral obesity and insulin resistance in humans. We therefore quantified cortisol production and clearance rates, abdominal fat depots, insulin sensitivity, and adipocyte gene expression in a cohort of 24 men. To test whether the relationships found are a consequence rather than a cause of obesity, eight men from this larger group were studied before and after weight loss. Daily cortisol production rates (CPR), free cortisol levels (FC), and metabolic clearance rates (MCR) were measured by stable isotope methodology and 24-h sampling; intra-abdominal fat (IAF) and subcutaneous fat (SQF) by computed tomography; insulin sensitivity (SI) by frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test; and adipocyte 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase-1 (11β-HSD-1) gene expression by quantitative RT-PCR from subcutaneous biopsies. Increased CPR and FC correlated with increased IAF, but not SQF, and with decreased SI. Increased 11β-HSD-1 gene expression correlated with both IAF and SQF and with decreased SI. With weight loss, CPR, FC, and MCR did not change compared with baseline; however, with greater loss in body fat than lean mass during weight loss, both CPR and FC increased proportionally to final fat mass and IAF and 11β-HSD-1 decreased compared with baseline. These data support a model in which increased hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal activity in men promotes selective visceral fat accumulation and insulin resistance and may promote weight regain after diet-induced weight loss, whereas 11β-HSD-1 gene expression in SQF is a consequence rather than cause of adiposity. "Previous studies have shown that compared with women, men have increased CPR (29), cortisol levels (29, 44), and visceral adiposity (9, 13). Given that hypercortisolemia can induce central obesity in disease states such as Cushing's syndrome, elevated endogenous cortisol secretion has been considered a potential mechanism that contributes to the expression of visceral adiposity in humans. However, of four previous reports that used 24-h urinary excretion rates of cortisol as a surrogate for cortisol production, only one found significant relationships between urinary secretion of total glucocorticoids, truncal fat, and insulin sensitivity in men and women (39), while three other studies in men have failed to show associations between urinary glucocorticoid secretion and either WHR (16, 26) or visceral fat (48). These studies, however, did not measure cortisol production directly, did not include blood FC, and did not test for differences in circadian variations of blood levels of cortisol, and in only one study was visceral fat specifically measured. [...] "In summary, we found in men that increased CPR and circulating FC are associated with accumulation of IAF, but not SQF, and with insulin resistance and impaired islet β-cell compensation (DI)."

[4]

Evidence type: observational Cortisol clearance and associations with insulin sensitivity, body fat and fatty liver in middle-aged men Holt HB, Wild SH, Postle AD, Zhang J, Koster G, Umpleby M, Shojaee-Moradie F, Dewbury K, Wood PJ, Phillips DI, Byrne CD. Diabetologia. 2007 May;50(5):1024-32. Epub 2007 Mar 17. "AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The regulation of cortisol metabolism in vivo is not well understood. We evaluated the relationship between cortisol metabolism and insulin sensitivity, adjusting for total and regional fat content and for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. "MATERIALS AND METHODS: "Twenty-nine middle-aged healthy men with a wide range of BMI were recruited. We measured fat content by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), liver fat by ultrasound and MRI, the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis by adrenal response to ACTH(1-24), unconjugated urinary cortisol excretion, corticosteroid-binding globulin, and cortisol clearance by MS. We assessed insulin sensitivity by hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp and by OGTT. "RESULTS: "Cortisol clearance was strongly inversely correlated with insulin sensitivity (M value) (r = -0.61, p = 0.002). Cortisol clearance was increased in people with fatty liver compared with those without (mean+/-SD: 243 +/- 10 vs 158 +/- 36 ml/min; p = 0.014). Multiple regression modelling showed that the relationship between cortisol clearance and insulin sensitivity was independent of body fat. The relationship between fatty liver and insulin sensitivity was significantly influenced by body fat and cortisol clearance. "CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: "Cortisol clearance is strongly associated with insulin sensitivity, independently of the amount of body fat. The relationship between fatty liver and insulin sensitivity is mediated in part by both fatness and cortisol clearance." [...] "Since we showed no strong associations between measures of insulin sensitivity and 09.00 h cortisol levels, ACTH-stimulated cortisol concentrations, and unconjugated urinary cortisol excretion, these findings suggest that the relationship between these other aspects of cortisol metabolism and insulin sensitivity is relatively weak."

[5]

Evidence type: experiment Association of 24-hour cortisol production rates, cortisol-binding globulin, and plasma-free cortisol levels with body composition, leptin levels, and aging in adult men and women. Purnell JQ, Brandon DD, Isabelle LM, Loriaux DL, Samuels MH. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2004 Jan;89(1):281-7. (emphasis ours) "The present study was designed to examine the hypothesis that hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity as measured by 24-h cortisol production rate (CPR) and plasma levels of free cortisol is linked to increased body fat in adults, and that increased cortisol levels with aging results from increased CPR. Fifty-four healthy men and women volunteers with a wide range of body mass indexes and ages underwent measurement of CPR by isotope dilution measured by gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy, cortisol-binding globulin, and free cortisol in pooled 24-h plasma, body composition, and leptin. Cortisol clearance rates were determined from the 10-h disappearance curves of hydrocortisone after steady-state infusion in a separate group of lean and obese subjects with adrenal insufficiency. Although CPR significantly increased with increasing body mass index and percentage body fat, free cortisol levels remained independent of body composition and leptin levels due to increased cortisol clearance rates. CPR and free cortisol levels were, however, significantly higher in men than women. In addition, 24-h plasma free cortisol levels were increased with age in association with increased CPR, independent of body size. This increase in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity may play a role in the alterations in body composition and central fat distribution in men vs. women and with aging."

[6]

Evidence type: review of human and non-human animal experiments Adipose tissue expression of 11beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 in Cushing's syndrome and in obesity. Espíndola-Antunes D, Kater CE. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metabol. 2007 Nov;51(8):1397-403. "Human studies "The bulk of evidences points both to an overexpression and an increased activity of 11bHSD1 in subcutaneous (SAT) and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) of obese subjects, although biopsies of the omentum were conducted in but a few studies. Several groups have shown higher 11bHSD1 mRNA expression in obese compared to non-obese subjects (29-32), although not all studies agree (33). Direct in vivo measurements using microdialysis in SAT also suggest an increase in the conversion rate of cortisone to cortisol (34). Moreover, 11bHSD1 mRNA expression positively correlates with obesity (body mass index and abdominal circumference), body composition, insulin resistance (30-32), resistins and other cytokines, as TNFa, IL-6, and leptin (35). "The whole body 11bHSD1 activity reflects mainly hepatic expression. Initial studies that relied on measurements of cortisol-to-cortisone metabolites in urine (23,36) should be taken with caution as indicative of 11bHSD1 activity, because several other cortisol and cortisone metabolizing enzymes are deregulated in obesity (36). Of greater importance is the finding of reduced hepatic 11bHSD1 activity measured by the conversion of orally administered cortisone to cortisol (23,37). Thus, 11bHSD1 upregulation in obesity seems not to be a generalized process. In both the whole body and the splanchnic circulation there are no differences between obese and lean subjects regarding cortisol regeneration rates (as measured by [2H4]-cortisol tracer), presumably because an upregulation in adipose tissue is counterbalanced by a downregulation in the liver (15). "Polymorphisms in the 11bHSD1 gene were identified in an attempt to clarify the basis for the increased activity of adipose tissue 11bHSD1 in obesity. In two populations, polymorphisms were associated with an increased risk of diabetes and hypertension, but not obesity (38,39). A polymorphism was also found that predicts lower 11bHSD1 expression and protection against diabetes (40)."

[7]

Evidence type: observational Local and systemic impact of transcriptional up-regulation of 11beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 in adipose tissue in human obesity. Wake DJ, Rask E, Livingstone DE, Söderberg S, Olsson T, Walker BR. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2003 Aug;88(8):3983-8. (emphasis ours) "In idiopathic obesity circulating cortisol levels are not elevated, but high intraadipose cortisol concentrations have been implicated. 11beta-Hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11HSD1) catalyzes the conversion of inactive cortisone to active cortisol, thus amplifying glucocorticoid receptor (GR) activation. In cohorts of men and women, we have shown increased ex vivo 11HSD1 activity in sc adipose tissue associated with in vivo obesity and insulin resistance. Using these biopsies, we have now validated this observation by measuring 11HSD1 and GR mRNA and examined the impact on intraadipose cortisol concentrations, putative glucocorticoid regulated adipose target gene expression (angiotensinogen and leptin), and systemic measurements of cortisol metabolism. From aliquots of sc adipose biopsies from 16 men and 16 women we extracted RNA for real-time PCR and steroids for immunoassays. Adipose 11HSD1 mRNA was closely related to 11HSD1 activity [standardized beta coefficient (SBC) = 0.58; P < 0.01], and both were positively correlated with parameters of obesity (e.g. for BMI, SBC = 0.48; P < 0.05 for activity, and SBC = 0.63; P < 0.01 for mRNA) and insulin sensitivity (log fasting plasma insulin; SBC = 0.44; P < 0.05 for activity, and SBC = 0.33; P = 0.09 for mRNA), but neither correlated with urinary cortisol/cortisone metabolite ratios. Adipose GR-alpha and angiotensinogen mRNA levels were not associated with obesity or insulin resistance, but leptin mRNA was positively related to 11HSD1 activity (SBC = 0.59; P < 0.05) and tended to be associated with parameters of obesity (BMI: SBC = 0.40; P = 0.09), fasting insulin (SBC = 0.65; P < 0.05), and 11HSD1 mRNA (SBC = 0.40; P = 0.15). Intraadipose cortisol (142 +/- 30 nmol/kg) was not related to 11HSD1 activity or expression, but was positively correlated with plasma cortisol. These data confirm that idiopathic obesity is associated with transcriptional up-regulation of 11HSD1 in adipose, which is not detected by conventional in vivo measurements of urinary cortisol metabolites and is not accompanied by dysregulation of GR. Although this may drive a compensatory increase in leptin synthesis, whether it has an adverse effect on intraadipose cortisol concentrations and GR-dependent gene regulation remains to be established."

[8]

Evidence type: review Extra-adrenal regeneration of glucocorticoids by 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1: physiological regulator and pharmacological target for energy partitioning Brian R. Walker Proceedings of the Nutrition Society / Volume 66 / Issue 01 / February 2007, pp 1-8 (emphasis ours) "The parallels between the clinical features of Cushing’s syndrome and the features of the metabolic syndrome (visceral obesity, hyperglycaemia, hypertension) led to the hypothesis that obesity is associated with glucocorticoid excess (Bjorntorp, 1991). In several monogenic rodent models obesity is accompanied by elevated circulating glucocorticoid levels, and the obesity is prevented by adrenalectomy. Hyperactivity of the HPA axis was thought to reflect chronic stress. However, although there is some evidence for greater stress responsiveness of the HPA axis in obesity (Rosmond et al . 1998; Epel et al . 2000), stress does not appear to explain HPA axis activation in metabolic syndrome (Brunner et al . 2002). Most importantly, in human obesity it appears that cortisol secretion (Marin et al . 1992; Pasquali et al . 1993) is increased to match elevated metabolic clearance (Strain et al . 1982; Andrew et al . 1998; Lottenberg et al . 1998), and does not result in increased plasma cortisol concentrations. Indeed, plasma cortisol concentrations are generally lower amongst obese subjects (Ljung et al . 1996; Walker et al . 2000; Reynolds et al . 2003), i.e. inverse to the effects on the HPA axis seen during starvation (see earlier; p. 2)."

[9]

Evidence type: randomised controlled trial Dietary macronutrient content alters cortisol metabolism independently of body weight changes in obese men. Stimson RH, Johnstone AM, Homer NZ, Wake DJ, Morton NM, Andrew R, Lobley GE, Walker BR. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2007 Nov;92(11):4480-4. Epub 2007 Sep 4. "CONTEXT: Dietary macronutrient composition influences cardiometabolic health independently of obesity. Both dietary fat and insulin alter glucocorticoid metabolism in rodents and, acutely, in humans. However, whether longer-term differences in dietary macronutrients affect cortisol metabolism in humans and contribute to the tissue-specific dysregulation of cortisol metabolism in obesity is unknown. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to test the effects of dietary macronutrients on cortisol metabolism in obese men. DESIGN: The study consisted of two randomized, crossover studies. SETTING: The study was conducted at a human nutrition unit. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included healthy obese men. INTERVENTIONS, OUTCOME MEASURES, AND RESULTS: Seventeen obese men received 4 wk ad libitum high fat-low carbohydrate (HF-LC) (66% fat, 4% carbohydrate) vs. moderate fat-moderate carbohydrate (MF-MC) diets (35% fat, 35% carbohydrate). Six obese men participated in a similar study with isocaloric feeding. Both HF-LC and MF-MC diets induced weight loss. During 9,11,12,12-[(2)H](4)-cortisol infusion, HF-LC but not MF-MC increased 11beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11beta-HSD1) activity (rates of appearance of cortisol and 9,12,12-[(2)H](3)-cortisol) and reduced urinary excretion of 5alpha- and 5beta-reduced [(2)H](4)-cortisol metabolites and [(2)H](4)-cortisol clearance. HF-LC also reduced 24-h urinary 5alpha- and 5beta-reduced endogenous cortisol metabolites but did not alter plasma cortisol or diurnal salivary cortisol rhythm. In sc abdominal adipose tissue, 11beta-HSD1 mRNA and activity were unaffected by diet. CONCLUSIONS: A low-carbohydrate diet alters cortisol metabolism independently of weight loss. In obese men, this enhances cortisol regeneration by 11beta-HSD1 and reduces cortisol inactivation by A-ring reductases in liver without affecting sc adipose 11beta-HSD1. Alterations in cortisol metabolism may be a consequence of macronutrient dietary content and may mediate effects of diet on metabolic health."

[10]

Evidence type: authority (review article) 11β-Hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1: relevance of its modulation in the pathophysiology of obesity, the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Pereira CD, Azevedo I, Monteiro R, Martins MJ. Diabetes Obes Metab. 2012 Oct;14(10):869-81. doi: 10.1111/j.1463-1326.2012.01582.x. Epub 2012 Mar 8. (emphasis ours) "Recent evidence strongly argues for a pathogenic role of glucocorticoids and 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11β-HSD1) in obesity and the metabolic syndrome, a cluster of risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) that includes insulin resistance (IR), dyslipidaemia, hypertension and visceral obesity. This has been partially prompted not only by the striking clinical resemblances between the metabolic syndrome and Cushing’s syndrome (a state characterized by hypercortisolism that associates with metabolic syndrome components) but also from monogenic rodent models for the metabolic syndrome (e.g. the leptin-deficient ob/ob mouse or the leptin-resistant Zucker rat) that display overall increased secretion of glucocorticoids. However, systemic circulating glucocorticoids are not elevated in obese patients and/or patients with metabolic syndrome. The study of the role of 11β-HSD system shed light on this conundrum, showing that local glucocorticoids are finely regulated in a tissue-specific manner at the pre-receptor level. The system comprises two microsomal enzymes that either activate cortisone to cortisol (11β-HSD1) or inactivate cortisol to cortisone (11β-HSD2). Transgenic rodent models, knockout (KO) for HSD11B1 or with HSD11B1 or HSD11B2 overexpression, specifically targeted to the liver or adipose tissue, have been developed and helped unravel the currently undisputable role of the enzymes in metabolic syndrome pathophysiology, in each of its isolated components and in their prevention. In the transgenic HSD11B1 overexpressing models, different features of the metabolic syndrome and obesity are replicated."

[11]

Evidence type: non-human animal experiment Chronic inhibition of 11 β -hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 activity decreases hypertension, insulin resistance, and hypertriglyceridemia in metabolic syndrome. Schnackenberg CG, Costell MH, Krosky DJ, Cui J, Wu CW, Hong VS, Harpel MR, Willette RN, Yue TL. Biomed Res Int. 2013;2013:427640. doi: 10.1155/2013/427640. Epub 2013 Mar 18. (emphasis ours) "Metabolic syndrome is a constellation of risk factors including hypertension, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, and obesity that promote the development of cardiovascular disease. Metabolic syndrome has been associated with changes in the secretion or metabolism of glucocorticoids, which have important functions in adipose, liver, kidney, and vasculature. Tissue concentrations of the active glucocorticoid cortisol are controlled by the conversion of cortisone to cortisol by 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11β-HSD1). Because of the various cardiovascular and metabolic activities of glucocorticoids, we tested the hypothesis that 11β-HSD1 is a common mechanism in the hypertension, dyslipidemia, and insulin resistance in metabolic syndrome. In obese and lean SHR/NDmcr-cp (SHR-cp), cardiovascular, metabolic, and renal functions were measured before and during four weeks of administration of vehicle or compound 11 (10 mg/kg/d), a selective inhibitor of 11β-HSD1. Compound 11 significantly decreased 11β-HSD1 activity in adipose tissue and liver of SHR-cp. In obese SHR-cp, compound 11 significantly decreased mean arterial pressure, glucose intolerance, insulin resistance, hypertriglyceridemia, and plasma renin activity with no effect on heart rate, body weight gain, or microalbuminuria. These results suggest that 11β-HSD1 activity in liver and adipose tissue is a common mediator of hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, glucose intolerance, and insulin resistance in metabolic syndrome."

The Ketogenic Diet Reverses Indicators of Heart Disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide ¹. Because of its prevalence and life-threatening nature, and because it appears that a keto diet is likely to reverse it, we consider it one of the most important conditions to discuss here.

In our last post, we argued that CVD, being a disease strongly associated with metabolic syndrome, is likely to be best treated with a ketogenic diet. In this post we will present more evidence that ketogenic diets do improve heart disease risk factors.

Unfortunately, there is much confusion and misinformation about the impact of nutrition on CVD among scientists and non-scientists alike. Not only does a high fat, keto diet not worsen heart disease risk — as would commonly be assumed — it actually improves it.This confusion about dietary fat is probably the reason that we do not yet have clinical trials directly testing the effects of ketogenic diets on CVD outcomes.

However, we already have many trials of ketogenic diets that measured known CVD risk factors, especially cholesterol profiles. It turns out that these trials show a powerful heart disease risk reduction in those following a ketogenic diet. It is powerful both in absolute terms, and in comparison with low-fat diets, which tend to improve some weakly predictive factors while worsening stronger predictors.

As such, a high-fat ketogenic diet is currently the best known non-drug intervention for heart disease, as defined by mainstream measures of risk. It is arguably better than drug interventions, too.

In brief:

• Total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol are only weak predictors of CVD.
• Triglycerides, HDL, LDL particle size, and the HDL-to-triglyceride ratio are much stronger predictors of CVD.
• Keto diets improve triglyceride levels, HDL, and LDL particle size — precisely those measures that strongly indicate risk.

Total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol are only weakly associated with CVD

The connection between blood cholesterol levels and the development of heart disease began to be explored in the last century. Over the last several decades, our understanding of the predictive power of various blood lipids has gone through many refinements as our ability to measure finer and finer detail has advanced.

In the early years, it appeared that high levels of total cholesterol carried some risk of heart disease in many cases. However, it is now well established that total cholesterol by itself is a weak predictor ^2,3,4.

The reason is quite simple. The different subtypes of cholesterol work together in an intricately balanced system. There is a wide range of total cholesterol levels that are perfectly healthy, so long as the proportions of the subtypes are healthy ones. By the same token, a given level of total cholesterol, even if it is perfectly normal, could be pathological when examined by subtype. Strong evidence from recent decades suggests that the best known blood lipid measures for predicting future risk of CVD are HDL, triglycerides, and related ratios (see below).

Similarly, while LDL cholesterol is probably important, it appears that it does not have good predictive power when looking at its magnitude alone ^5,6,7,8.

One reason for this is that like total cholesterol, LDL is not uniform. Just as we distinguish between HDL and LDL, the so-called “good” and “bad” cholesterol, LDL itself is now known to have two important subtypes with opposite risk implications. Having more large, light LDL particles (also called Pattern A), does not indicate high CVD risk, but having more small, dense particles (Pattern B) does ^{9,10,11,12,13}. Therefore high LDL by itself is not necessarily indicative of CVD.

Low HDL cholesterol is strongly associated with CVD

Having high blood levels of HDL is now widely recognized as predicting lower levels of heart disease. The proportion of total cholesterol that is HDL cholesterol is a particularly strong predictor. In 2007, a meta-analysis was published in the Lancet that examined information from 61 prospective observational studies, consisting of almost 900,000 adults. Information about HDL was available for about 150,000 of them, among whom there were 5000 vascular deaths. According to the authors, "the ratio of total to HDL cholesterol is a substantially more informative predictor of IHD mortality than are total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, or non-HDL cholesterol." ¹⁴

This is consistent with many other studies, for example this very recent analysis from the COURAGE trial ¹⁵.

High triglycerides are strongly associated with CVD

There has been drawn out controversy in the medical community as to the relationship of triglyceride levels to CVD. There are two parts to the controversy: whether or not triglycerides are an independent predictor of CVD, and whether or not triglycerides play a causative role in CVD.

In both cases, however, it doesn't matter in which way the controversy is resolved! Whether or not triglycerides independently predict CVD (and there is at least some evidence that they do), and whether or not they cause CVD, there is no controversy about whether they predict CVD. The association between triglyceride levels and CVD still holds and is strongly predictive ^16,17,18. In fact it is so predictive that those who argue that triglyceride levels are not an independent risk factor, call it instead a “biomarker” for CVD ¹⁹. In other words, seeing high triglycerides is tantamount to seeing the progression of heart disease.

HDL-to-Triglycerides Ratio: compounding evidence

Triglycerides and HDL levels statistically interact. That means it is a mistake to treat one as redundant with respect to the other. If you do, you will miss the fact that the effect of one on your outcome of interest changes depending on the value of the other. Despite the fact that most heart disease researchers who study risk factors have not used methods tuned to find interactions between triglycerides and HDL, many studies have at least measured both. This has allowed others to do the appropriate analysis. When triglycerides and HDL have been examined with respect to each other, that is, when the effect of triglycerides is measured under the condition of low HDL, or when the effect of HDL is measured under the condition of high triglycerides, this combination of factors turns out to be even more indicative of CVD ^20,21,22,23.

One of the most interesting aspects of this finding from our perspective, is that the ratio of triglyceride levels to HDL is considered to be a surrogate marker of insulin resistance (See The Ketogenic Diet as a Treatment for Metabolic Syndrome.) In other words, the best lipid predictors of CVD are also those that indicate insulin resistance.

Ketogenic Diets improve risk factors for CVD

There is now ample evidence that a low carbohydrate, ketogenic diet improves lipid profiles, particularly with respect to the risk factors outlined above: triglycerides, HDL, and their ratio ^{24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31}.

Although a ketogenic diet typically raises LDL levels, which has been traditionally seen as a risk factor, it has also been shown to improve LDL particle size. In other words, although the absolute amount of LDL goes up, it is the "good" LDL that goes up, whereas the "bad" LDL goes down ^31,32. This is hardly surprising, since LDL particle size is also strongly predicted by triglycerides ^33,34,35.

Although there have not yet been intervention studies testing the effect of a ketogenic diet on the rate of actual CVD incidents (e.g. heart attacks), the evidence about lipid profiles is strong enough to make ketogenic diets more likely to reduce heart disease than any other known intervention.

Summary:

• Current medical practice uses blood lipid measurements to assess the risk of heart disease.
• Despite the continuing tradition of measuring total cholesterol and LDL, we have known for decades that triglycerides, HDL, and the ratio of the two, are much better predictors of heart disease. LDL particle size is also considered strongly predictive.
• A ketogenic diet has a very favourable impact on these risk factors, and thus should be considered the diet of choice for those at risk of CVD.

In their 2011 paper, "Low-carbohydrate diet review: shifting the paradigm", Hite et al. display the following graph (VLCKD stands for Very Low Carbohydrate Ketogenic Diet, and LFD for Low Fat Diet) ³⁶ based on data from ³¹:

It makes an excellent visualization of the factors at stake, and how powerful a ketogenic diet is. It also shows quite clearly that not only is restricting carbohydrate more effective for this purpose than a low fat diet, but that a low fat diet is detrimental for some important risk factors — apolipoprotein ratios, LDL particle size, and HDL — but a low carb diet is not. The ketogenic diet resulted in a significant improvement in every measure.

References:

¹ Evidence type: observational
World Health Organization Fact sheet N°317: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) September 2011

• CVDs are the number one cause of death globally: more people die annually from CVDs than from any other cause.
• An estimated 17.3 million people died from CVDs in 2008, representing 30% of all global deaths. Of these deaths, an estimated 7.3 million were due to coronary heart disease and 6.2 million were due to stroke.
• Low- and middle-income countries are disproportionally affected: over 80% of CVD deaths take place in low- and middle-income countries and occur almost equally in men and women.
• By 2030, almost 23.6 million people will die from CVDs, mainly from heart disease and stroke. These are projected to remain the single leading causes of death.

² Evidence type: observational
Role of lipid and lipoprotein profiles in risk assessment and therapy. Ballantyne CM, Hoogeveen RC. Am Heart J. 2003 Aug;146(2):227-33.

Despite a strong and consistent association within populations, elevated TC [(total cholesterol)] alone is not a useful test to discriminate between individuals who will have CHD [(coronary heart disease)] events and those who will not.

³ Evidence type: observational
Relation of serum lipoprotein cholesterol levels to presence and severity of angiographic coronary artery disease. Philip A. Romm, MD, Curtis E. Green, MD, Kathleen Reagan, MD, Charles E. Rackley, MD. The American Journal of Cardiology Volume 67, Issue 6, 1 March 1991, Pages 479–483

Most CAD [(coronary artery disease)] occurs in persons who have only mild or moderate elevations in cholesterol levels. Total cholesterol level alone is a poor predictor of CAD, particularly in older patients in whom the major lipid risk factor is the HDL cholesterol level.

⁴ Evidence type: observational
Lipids, risk factors and ischaemic heart disease. Atherosclerosis. 1996 Jul;124 Suppl:S1-9. Castelli WP.

Those individuals who had TC [(total cholesterol)] levels of 150-300 mg/dl (3.9-7.8 mmol/1) fell into the overlapping area (Fig. 1), demonstrating that 90% of the TC levels measured were useless (by themselves) for predicting risk of CHD [(coronary heart disease)] in a general population. Indeed, twice as many individuals who had a lifetime TC level of less than 200 mg/dl (5.2 mmol/1) had CHD compared with those who had a TC level greater than 300 mg/dl (7.8 mmol/l) (Fig. 1).

⁵ Evidence type: observational
Range of Serum Cholesterol Values in the Population Developing Coronary Artery Disease. William B. Kannel, MD, MPH. The American Journal of Cardiology, Volume 76, Issue 9, Supplement 1, 28 September 1995, Pages 69C–77C

The ranges of serum cholesterol and LDL cholesterol levels varied widely both in the general population and in patients who had already manifested CAD (Figures 1 and 2). Because of the extensive overlap between levels, it was impossible to differentiate the patients with CAD from the control subjects.

⁶ Evidence type: observational
Lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein A-I and B and lipoprotein (a) abnormalities in men with premature coronary artery disease. Jacques Genest Jr., MD,FACC, Judith R. McNamara, MT, Jose M. Ordovas, PhD, Jennifer L. Jenner, BSc, Steven R. Silberman, PhD, Keaven M. Anderson, PhD, Peter W.F. Wilson, MD, Deeb N. Salem, MD, FACC, Ernst J. Schaefer, MD. Journal of the American College of Cardiology Volume 19, Issue 4, 15 March 1992, Pages 792–802.

Our data suggest that total and LDL cholesterol may not be the best discriminants for the presence of coronary artery disease despite the strong association between elevated cholesterol and the development of coronary artery disease in cross-sectional population studies and prospective epidemiologic studies.

⁷ Evidence type: observational
Apolipoprotein B and apolipoprotein A-I: risk indicators of coronary heart disease and targets for lipid-modifying therapy. Walldius, G. and Jungner, I. (2004), Journal of Internal Medicine, 255: 188–205. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2796.2003.01276.x

(Emphasis ours.)

For over three decades it has been recognized that a high level of total blood cholesterol, particularly in the form of LDL cholesterol (LDL-C), is a major risk factor for developing coronary heart disease (CHD) [1–4]. However, as more recent research has expanded our understanding of lipoprotein function and metabolism, it has become apparent that LDL-C is not the only lipoprotein species involved in atherogenesis. A considerable proportion of patients with atherosclerotic disease have levels of LDL-C and total cholesterol (TC) within the recommended range [5, 6], and some patients who achieve significant LDL-C reduction with lipid-lowering therapy still develop CHD [7].

Other lipid parameters are also associated with elevated cardiovascular risk, and it has been suggested that LDL-C and TC may not be the best discriminants for the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) [5].

⁸ Evidence type: observational
Plasma Lipoprotein Levels as Predictors of Cardiovascular Death in Women. Katherine Miller Bass, MD, MHS; Craig J. Newschaffer, MS; Michael J. Klag, MD, MPH; Trudy L. Bush, PhD, MHS. Arch Intern Med. 1993;153(19):2209-2216.

Using a sample of 1405 women aged 50 to 69 years from the Lipid Research Clinics' Follow-up Study, age-adjusted CVD death rates and summary relative risk (RR) estimates by categories of lipid and lipoprotein levels were calculated. Multivariate analysis was performed to provide RR estimates adjusted for other CVD risk factors.

RESULTS: Average follow-up was 14 years. High-density lipoprotein and triglyceride levels were strong predictors of CVD death in age-adjusted and multivariate analyses. Low-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol levels were poorer predictors of CVD mortality. After adjustment for other CVD risk factors, HDL levels less than 1.30 mmol/L (50 mg/dL) were strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10 to 2.75). Triglyceride levels were associated with increased CVD mortality at levels of 2.25 to 4.49 mmol/L (200 to 399 mg/dL) (RR = 1.65; 95% CI, 0.99 to 2.77) and 4.50 mmol/L (400 mg/dL) or greater (RR = 3.44; 95% CI, 1.65 to 7.20). At total cholesterol levels of 5.20 mmol/L (200 mg/dL) or greater and at all levels of LDL and triglycerides, women with HDL levels of less than 1.30 mmol/L (< 50 mg/dL) had CVD death rates that were higher than those of women with HDL levels of 1.30 mmol/L (50 mg/dL) or greater.

⁹ Evidence type: plausible mechanism and observational review
Particle size: the key to the atherogenic lipoprotein? Rajman I, Maxwell S, Cramb R, Kendall M. QJM. 1994 Dec;87(12):709-20.

Using different analytical methods, up to 12 low-density lipoprotein (LDL) subfractions can be separated. LDL particle size decreases with increasing density. Smaller, denser LDL particles seem more atherogenic than the larger, lighter particles, based on the experimental findings that smaller LDL particles are more susceptible for oxidation in vitro, have lower binding affinity for the LDL receptors and lower catabolic rate, have a higher concentration of polyunsaturated fatty acids, and potentially interact more easily with proteoglycans of the arterial wall. Clinical studies have shown that a smaller LDL subfraction profile is associated with an increased risk of heart disease, even when total cholesterol level is only slightly raised. There is a strong inverse association between LDL particle size and triglyceride concentrations. Although LDL particle size is genetically determined, its phenotypic expression may also be affected by environmental factors such as drugs, diet, obesity, exercise or disease. Factors that shift the LDL subfractions profile towards larger particles may reduce the risk of heart disease.

¹⁰ Evidence type: nested case-control study
Association of Small Low-Density Lipoprotein Particles With the Incidence of Coronary Artery Disease in Men and Women. Christopher D. Gardner, PhD; Stephen P. Fortmann, MD; Ronald M. Krauss, MD JAMA. 1996;276(11):875-881. doi:10.1001/jama.1996.03540110029028.

Incident CAD cases were identified through FCP surveillance between 1979 and 1992. Controls were matched by sex, 5-year age groups, survey time point, ethnicity, and FCP treatment condition. The sample included 124 matched pairs: 90 pairs of men and 34 pairs of women.

...

LDL size was smaller among CAD cases than controls (mean ±SD) (26.17±1.00nm vs 26.68±0.90nm;P<.001).The association was graded across control quintiles of LDL size. The significant case-control difference in LDL size was independent of levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), non—HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C), triglyceride, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body mass index, but was not significant after adjusting for the ratio of total cholesterol (TC) to HDL-C (TC:HDL-C). Among all the physiological risk factors, LDL size was the best differentiator of CAD status in conditional logistic regression. However, when added to the physiological parameters above, the TC:HDL-C ratio was found to be a stronger independent predictor of CAD status.

¹¹ Evidence type: review
The small, dense LDL phenotype and the risk of coronary heart disease: epidemiology, patho-physiology and therapeutic aspects. Lamarche B, Lemieux I, Després JP. Diabetes Metab. 1999 Sep;25(3):199-211.

More than decade ago, several cross-sectional studies have reported differences in LDL particle size, density and composition between coronary heart disease (CHD) patients and healthy controls. Three recent prospective, nested case-control studies have since confirmed that the presence of small, dense LDL particles was associated with more than a three-fold increase in the risk of CHD. The small, dense LDL phenotype rarely occurs as an isolated disorder. It is most frequently accompanied by hypertriglyceridemia, reduced HDL cholesterol levels, abdominal obesity, insulin resistance and by a series of other metabolic alterations predictive of an impaired endothelial function and increased susceptibility to thrombosis.

²⁸ Evidence type: prospective
A prospective, population-based study of low density lipoprotein particle size as a risk factor for ischemic heart disease in men. Lamarche B, St-Pierre AC, Ruel IL, Cantin B, Dagenais GR, Després JP. Can J Cardiol. 2001 Aug;17(8):859-65.

Analyses were conducted in a cohort of 2057 men who were all initially free of IHD, and who were followed up over a five-year period, during which 108 first IHD events (myocardial infarction, angina or coronary death) were recorded. LDL particle size was measured by nondenaturing gradient gel electrophoresis.

RESULTS: Cox proportional hazards analysis indicated that the relationship between LDL particle size and the risk of future IHD events was not linear. Men with an LDL particle size less than 256.0 A had a significant 2.2-fold increase in the five-year rate of IHD (P<0.001) compared with men having an LDL particle size greater than 256.0 A. Multivariate and subgroup analyses indicated that small, dense LDL particles predicted the rate of IHD independent of LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, apolipoprotein B and the total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio. Finally, the magnitude of the increase in IHD risk attributed to lipid risk factors was modulated to a significant extent by variations in LDL particle size.

¹³ Evidence type: review
Small, dense low-density-lipoproteins and the metabolic syndrome. Rizzo M, Berneis K. Diabetes Metab Res Rev. 2007 Jan;23(1):14-20.

Small, dense low-density-lipoproteins (LDL) are associated with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus and a reduction in LDL size has been reported in patients with coronary and non-coronary forms of atherosclerosis. LDL size has been accepted as an important predictor of cardiovascular events and progression of coronary artery disease as well as an emerging cardiovascular risk factor by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III. Small, dense LDL, with elevated triglyceride levels and low HDL-cholesterol concentrations, constitute the 'atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype (ALP)', a form of atherogenic dyslipidemia that is a feature of type 2 diabetes and the metabolic syndrome.

¹⁴ Evidence type: meta-analysis of prospective studies
Blood cholesterol and vascular mortality by age, sex, and blood pressure: a meta-analysis of individual data from 61 prospective studies with 55,000 vascular deaths. Prospective Studies Collaboration, Lewington S, Whitlock G, Clarke R, Sherliker P, Emberson J, Halsey J, Qizilbash N, Peto R, Collins R. Lancet. 2007 Dec 1;370(9602):1829-39.

Of various simple indices involving HDL cholesterol, the ratio total/HDL cholesterol was the strongest predictor of IHD mortality (40% more informative than non-HDL cholesterol and more than twice as informative as total cholesterol). Total cholesterol was weakly positively related to ischaemic and total stroke mortality in early middle age (40-59 years), but this finding could be largely or wholly accounted for by the association of cholesterol with blood pressure. Moreover, a positive relation was seen only in middle age and only in those with below-average blood pressure; at older ages (70-89 years) and, particularly, for those with systolic blood pressure over about 145 mm Hg, total cholesterol was negatively related to haemorrhagic and total stroke mortality.

¹⁵ Evidence type: post-hoc analysis
Low Levels of High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Increased Risk of Cardiovascular Events in Stable Ischemic Heart Disease Patients: A Post Hoc Analysis from the COURAGE Trial. Acharjee S, Boden WE, Hartigan PM, Teo KK, Maron DJ, Sedlis SP, Kostuk W, Spertus JA, Dada M, Chaitman BR, Mancini GB, Weintraub WS. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2013 Aug 8. pii: S0735-1097(13)03082-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jacc.2013.07.051. [Epub ahead of print]

Abstract:

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the independent effect of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level on cardiovascular risk in patients with stable ischemic heart disease (SIHD) while on optimal medical therapy (OMT).

BACKGROUND: While low HDL-C level is a powerful and independent predictor of cardiovascular risk, recent data suggest that this may not apply when low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is reduced to optimal levels using intensive statin therapy.

METHODS: We performed a post hoc analysis in 2,193 men and women with stable ischemic heart disease (SIHD) from the COURAGE trial. The primary outcome measure was the composite of death from any cause or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). The independent association between HDL-C levels measured after 6 months on optimal medical therapy (OMT) and the rate of cardiovascular events after 4 years was assessed. Similar analyses were performed separately in subjects with LDL-C levels below 70 mg/dL (1.8 mmol/L).

RESULTS: In the overall population, the rate of death/MI was 33% lower in the highest HDL-C quartile as compared with the lowest quartile, with quartile of HDL-C being a significant, independent predictor of death/MI (P = 0.05), but with no interaction for LDL-C category (P=0.40). Among subjects with LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL, those in the highest quintile of HDL-C had a 65% relative risk reduction in death or MI as compared to the lowest quintile, with HDL-C quintile demonstrating a significant, inverse predictive effect (P=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS: In this post hoc analysis, patients with SIHD continued to experience incremental cardiovascular risk associated with low HDL-C levels despite OMT during long-term follow-up. This relationship persisted and appeared more prominent even when LDL-C was reduced to optimal levels with intensive dyslipidemic therapy.

¹⁶ Evidence type: meta-analysis of prospective studies
Plasma triglyceride level is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease independent of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level: a meta-analysis of population-based prospective studies. Hokanson JE, Austin MA. J Cardiovasc Risk. 1996 Apr;3(2):213-9.

Seventeen studies were selected for the analysis based on published reports of population-based, prospective studies, including 46413 men and 10864 women. To insure comparability, only studies reporting the association between fasting triglyceride levels and incident cardiovascular endpoints were included. Using standard meta-analysis calculations, relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated and standardized with respect to a 1 mmol/l increase in triglyceride. Multivariable-adjusted RRs were determined for the six studies in men and two studies in women that reported adjustments for HDL cholesterol.

RESULTS: For men and women, the univariate RRs for triglyceride were 1.32 (95% Cl 1.26-1.39) and 1.76 (95% Cl 1.50-2.07), respectively, indicating an approximately 30% increased risk in men and a 75% increase in women. Adjustment of HDL cholesterol and other risk factors attenuated these RRs to 1.14 (95% Cl 1.05-1.28) and 1.37 (95% Cl 1.13-1.66), respectively, which were still statistically significant values.

CONCLUSION: Based on combined data from prospective studies, triglyceride is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease for both men and women in the general population, independent of HDL cholesterol. These finding demonstrate the necessity for clinical trials to evaluate whether lowering plasma triglyceride decreases the risk of cardiovascular disease.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8782637

¹⁷ Evidence type: prospective cohort study
A prospective study of triglyceride level, low-density lipoprotein particle diameter, and risk of myocardial infarction. Stampfer MJ, Krauss RM, Ma J, Blanche PJ, Holl LG, Sacks FM, Hennekens CH. JAMA. 1996 Sep 18;276(11):882-8.

RESULTS: Cases (n=266) had a significantly smaller LDL diameter (mean [SD], 25.6 [0.9] nm) than did controls (n=308) matched on age and smoking (mean [SD], 25.9 [8] nm; P<.001). Cases also had higher median triglyceride levels (1.90 vs 1.49 mmol/L [168 vs 132 mg/dL]; P<.001). The LDL diameter had a high inverse correlation with triglyceride level (r=-0.71), and a high direct correlation with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level (r=0.60). We observed a significant multiplicative interaction between triglyceride and total cholesterol (TC) levels (P=.01). After simultaneous adjustment for lipids and a variety of coronary risk factors, LDL particle diameter was no longer a statistically significant risk indicator, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-1.40) per 0.8-nm decrease. However, triglyceride level remained significant with an RR of 1.40 (95% CI, 1.10-1.77) per 1.13 mmol/L (100-mg/dL) increase. The association between triglyceride level and MI risk appeared linear across the distribution; men in the highest quintile had a risk about 2.5 times that of those in the lowest quintile. The TC level, but not HDL-C level, also remained significant, with an RR of 1.80 (95% CI, 1.44-2.26) per 1.03-mmol/L (40-mg/dL) increase.

CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that nonfasting triglyceride levels appear to be a strong and independent predictor of future risk of MI, particularly when the total cholesterol level is also elevated. In contrast, LDL particle diameter is associated with risk of MI, but not after adjustment for triglyceride level. Increased triglyceride level, small LDL particle diameter, and decreased HDL-C levels appear to reflect underlying metabolic perturbations with adverse consequences for risk of MI; elevated triglyceride levels may help identify high-risk individuals.

¹⁸ Evidence type: prospective study
The emergence of triglycerides as a significant independent risk factor in coronary artery disease. Assmann G, Schulte H, Funke H, von Eckardstein A. Eur Heart J. 1998 Oct;19 Suppl M:M8-14.

The Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) study involved 4849 middle-aged men who were followed up for 8 years to record the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) events according to the risk factors present at study entry. The study showed that fasting levels of triglycerides were an independent risk factor for CHD events, irrespective of serum levels of high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Other independent predictors of CHD included serum levels of LDL-C and HDL-C, age, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, diabetes mellitus, a family history of myocardial infarction and angina pectoris, but did not include total serum cholesterol levels. Individuals with an LDL-C/HDL-C ratio > 5 had a 19.2% chance of experiencing a CHD event in the next 8 years. Furthermore, if an LDL-C/HDL-C ratio > 5 was combined with hypertriglyceridaemia (> or = 2.3 mmol. l-1), the risk of CHD increased to 26.9%. The association between hypertriglyceridaemia and CHD events may be related to the presence of atherogenic, triglyceride-rich particles in plasma, such as LDL and very low density lipoproteins. High triglyceride levels may also predispose to thrombosis.

¹⁹ Evidence type: observation
The role of triglycerides in cardiovascular risk. Gandotra P, Miller M. Curr Cardiol Rep. 2008 Nov;10(6):505-11.

Triglycerides' role in coronary heart disease (CHD) risk assessment has long been debated. Although meta-analyses have suggested that triglycerides are an independent risk factor for CHD, a consensus has emerged that triglycerides more appropriately represent a biomarker of CHD risk rather than an independent risk factor. Ongoing studies will determine whether triglyceride lowering confers additional CHD benefit beyond that attained via low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol reduction. The American Diabetes Association presently recommends lowering elevated triglycerides as a secondary therapeutic target after LDL cholesterol, whereas other organizations, such as the National Cholesterol Education Program, recommend non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol as the second priority after attaining the LDL cholesterol goal. However, reducing very high triglycerides (ie, > 500 mg/dL) remains a sufficiently high priority in affected individuals.

²⁰ Evidence type: analysis of observational results from a randomized controlled trial
The Triglyceride Issue RevisitedFindings From the Helsinki Heart Study Leena Tenkanen, PhD; Kati Pietilä; Vesa Manninen, MD; Matti Mänttäri, MD Arch Intern Med. 1994;154(23):2714-2720. doi:10.1001/archinte.1994.00420230107012.

Results: Triglycerides occupied a central role in the pattern of associations of the factors studied; in particular, the associations with HDL-C level, blood pressure, and blood glucose level were without threshold values. The prevalence of high triglyceride level plus low HDL-C level was strongly associated with blood pressure and blood glucose level, while the prevalence of low HDL-C level alone was not. Only the subgroup with both high triglyceride and low HDL-C levels showed a substantial CHD risk, while those with low HDL-C levels alone or high triglyceride levels alone showed a marginal risk.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that triglycerides play a central mediating role in the occurrence of several CHD risk factors, especially those related to the insulin resistance syndrome. Because of these interdependencies, the question of an independent effect of triglycerides is not relevant, and when assessing CHD risk, triglycerides should be considered jointly with HDL-C

²¹ Evidence type: prospective analysis
Relation of High TG–Low HDL Cholesterol and LDL Cholesterol to the Incidence of Ischemic Heart Disease: An 8-Year Follow-up in the Copenhagen Male Study. Jørgen Jeppesen, Hans Ole Hein, Poul Suadicani, Finn Gyntelberg. Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology. 1997; 17: 1114-1120

High triglyceride (TG) and low HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) is the characteristic dyslipidemia seen in insulin-resistant subjects. We examined the role of this dyslipidemia as a risk factor of ischemic heart disease (IHD) compared with that of high LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) in the Copenhagen Male Study. In total 2910 white men, aged 53 to 74 years, free of cardiovascular disease at baseline, were subdivided into four groups on the basis of fasting concentrations of serum TG, HDL-C, and LDL-C. “High TG–low HDL-C” was defined as belonging to both the highest third of TG and the lowest third of HDL-C; this group encompassed one fifth of the population. “High LDL-C” was defined as belonging to the highest fifth of LDL-C. A control group was defined as not belonging to either of these two groups. “Combined dyslipidemia” was defined as belonging to both dyslipidemic groups. Age-adjusted incidence of IHD during 8 years of follow-up was 11.4% in high TG–low HDL-C, 8.2% in high LDL-C, 6.6% in the control group, and 17.5% in combined dyslipidemia.

...

At both low and high levels of total cholesterol and LDL-C, the presence of high TG–low HDL-C approximately doubled the risk of IHD, and individuals with high TG–low HDL-C in the lowest fifth of LDL-C (≤3.6 mmol/L) had a similar risk of IHD to subjects without high TG–low HDL-C in the highest fifth of LDL-C (≥5.3 mmol/L). High TG–low HDL-C thus clearly identified a group at high risk of IHD, though they had LDL-C levels considered to be safe or borderline (<3.4 mmol/L).

²² Evidence type: observational
Fasting Triglycerides, High-Density Lipoprotein, and Risk of Myocardial Infarction. J. Michael Gaziano, MD, MPH; Charles H. Hennekens, MD, DrPH; Christopher J. O’Donnell, MD, MPH; Jan L. Breslow, MD; Julie E. Buring, ScD. Circulation. 1997; 96: 2520-2525 doi: 10.1161/​01.CIR.96.8.2520

We examined the interrelationships of fasting triglycerides, other lipid parameters, and nonlipid risk factors with risk of myocardial infarction among 340 cases and an equal number of age-, sex-, and community-matched control subjects. Cases were men or women of <76 years of age with no prior history of coronary disease who were discharged from one of six Boston area hospitals with the diagnosis of a confirmed myocardial infarction. In crude analyses, we observed a significant association of elevated fasting triglycerides with risk of myocardial infarction (relative risk [RR] in the highest compared with the lowest quartile=6.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]=3.8 to 12.1; P for trend <.001). Results were not materially altered after control for nonlipid coronary risk factors. As expected, the relationship was attenuated after adjustment for HDL but remained statistically significant (RR in the highest quartile=2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.4 to 5.5; P for trend=.016). Furthermore, the ratio of triglycerides to HDL was a strong predictor of myocardial infarction (RR in the highest compared with the lowest quartile=16.0; 95% CI=7.7 to 33.1; P for trend <.001).

²³ Evidence type: observational
High Ratio of Triglycerides to HDL-Cholesterol Predicts Extensive Coronary Disease. Protasio Lemos da Luz, Desiderio Favarato, Jose Rocha Faria-Neto Junior, Pedro Lemos, and Antonio Carlos Palandri Chagas. Clinics. 2008 August; 63(4): 427–432. doi: 10.1590/S1807-59322008000400003 PMCID: PMC2664115

High-risk patients (n = 374) submitted for coronary angiography had their lipid variables measured and coronary disease extent scored by the Friesinger index.

RESULTS: The subjects consisted of 220 males and 154 females, age 57.2 ± 11.1 years, with total cholesterol of 210± 50.3 mg/dL, triglycerides of 173.8 ± 169.8 mg/dL, HDL-cholesterol (HDL-c) of 40.1 ± 12.8 mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol (LDL-c) of 137.3 ± 46.2 mg/dL, TG/HDL-c of 5.1 ± 5.3, and a Friesinger index of 6.6 ± 4.7. The relationship between the extent of coronary disease (dichotomized by a Friesenger index of 5 and lipid levels (normal vs. abnormal) was statistically significant for the following: triglycerides, odds ratio of 2.02 (1.31-3.1; p = 0.0018); HDL-c, odds ratio of 2.21 (1.42-3.43; p = 0.0005); and TG/HDL-c, odds ratio of 2.01(1.30-3.09; p = 0.0018). However, the relationship was not significant between extent of coronary disease and total cholesterol [1.25 (0.82-1.91; p = 0.33)] or LDL-c [1.47 (0.96-2.25; p = 0.0842)]. The chi-square for linear trends for Friesinger > 4 and lipid quartiles was statistically significant for triglycerides (p = 0.0017), HDL-c (p = 0.0001), and TG/HDL-c (p = 0.0018), but not for total cholesterol (p = 0.393) or LDL-c (p = 0.0568). The multivariate analysis by logistic regression OR gave 1.3 ± 0.79 (p = .0001) for TG/HDL-c, 0.779 ± 0.074 (p = .0001) for HDL-c, and 1.234 ± 0.097 (p = 0.03) for LDL. Analysis of receiver operating characteristic curves showed that only TG/HDL-c and HDL-c were useful for detecting extensive coronary disease, with the former more strongly associated with disease.

CONCLUSIONS: Although some lipid variables were associated with the extent of coronary disease, the ratio of triglycerides to HDL-cholesterol showed the strongest association with extent.

²⁴ Evidence type: non-randomized experiment
A Ketogenic Diet Favorably Affects Serum Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Disease in Normal-Weight Men. Matthew J. Sharman, William J. Kraemer, Dawn M. Love, Neva G. Avery, Ana L. Gómez, Timothy P. Scheett, and Jeff S. Volek. J. Nutr. July 1, 2002 vol. 132 no. 7 1879-1885

The primary objective of this study was to examine how healthy normolipidemic, normal-weight men respond to a ketogenic diet in terms of fasting and postprandial CVD biomarkers. Ketogenic diets have been criticized on the grounds they jeopardize health (8); however, very few studies have directly evaluated the effects of a ketogenic diet on fasting and postprandial risk factors for CVD. Subjects consumed a diet that consisted of 8% carbohydrate (<50 g/d), 61% fat, and 30% protein. Adaptation to this ketogenic diet resulted in significant reductions in fasting TAG (−33%), postprandial lipemia after a fat-rich meal (−29%), and fasting insulin concentrations (−34%). There were significant increases in LDL particle size, and no change in the oxidative LDL concentrations. There was a significant increase in HDL cholesterol at wk 3 after the ketogenic diet. Collectively, the responses in serum lipids, insulin and lipid subclasses to the ketogenic diet were favorable in terms of overall CVD risk profile.

²⁵ Evidence type: review of experiments
Cardiovascular and hormonal aspects of very-low-carbohydrate ketogenic diets. Volek JS, Sharman MJ. Obes Res. 2004 Nov;12 Suppl 2:115S-23S.

Compared with low-fat diets, short-term VLCKDs [very low carb diets] consistently result in improvements in fat loss, fasting and postprandial triacylglycerols, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, the distribution of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol subclasses, and insulin resistance.

²⁶ Evidence type: randomized controlled trial
Long-term effects of a ketogenic diet in obese patients. Dashti HM, Mathew TC, Hussein T, Asfar SK, Behbahani A, Khoursheed MA, Al-Sayer HM, Bo-Abbas YY, Al-Zaid NS. Exp Clin Cardiol. 2004 Fall;9(3):200-5.

The level of total cholesterol showed a significant decrease from week 1 to week 24 (Figure 3). The level of HDL cholesterol significantly increased (Figure 4), whereas LDL cholesterol levels significantly decreased with treatment (Figure 5). The level of triglycerides decreased significantly after 24 weeks of treatment. The initial level of triglycerides was 2.75±0.23 mmol/L, whereas at week 24, the level decreased to 1.09±0.08 mmol/L (Figure 6).

²⁷ Evidence type: randomized controlled trial
Very Low-Carbohydrate and Low-Fat Diets Affect Fasting Lipids and Postprandial Lipemia Differently in Overweight Men. Matthew J. Sharman, Ana L. Gómez, William J. Kraemer, and Jeff S. Volek. J. Nutr. April 1, 2004 vol. 134 no. 4 880-885

The primary purpose of this study was to compare the effects of a very low-carbohydrate and a low-fat diet on fasting blood lipids and postprandial lipemia in overweight men. In a balanced, randomized, crossover design, overweight men (n = 15; body fat >25%; BMI, 34 kg/m2) consumed 2 experimental diets for 2 consecutive 6-wk periods. One was a very low-carbohydrate (<10% energy as carbohydrate) diet and the other a low-fat (<30% energy as fat) diet. Blood was drawn from fasting subjects on separate days and an oral fat tolerance test was performed at baseline, after the very low-carbohydrate diet period, and after the low-fat diet period. Both diets had the same effect on serum total cholesterol, serum insulin, and homeostasis model analysis-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Neither diet affected serum HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) or oxidized LDL (oxLDL) concentrations. Serum LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) was reduced (P < 0.05) only by the low-fat diet (−18%). Fasting serum triacylglycerol (TAG), the TAG/HDL-C ratio, and glucose were significantly reduced only by the very low-carbohydrate diet (−44, −42, and −6%, respectively). Postprandial lipemia was significantly reduced when the men consumed both diets compared with baseline, but the reduction was significantly greater after intake of the very low-carbohydrate diet. Mean and peak LDL particle size increased only after the very low-carbohydrate diet. The short-term hypoenergetic low-fat diet was more effective at lowering serum LDL-C, but the very low-carbohydrate diet was more effective at improving characteristics of the metabolic syndrome as shown by a decrease in fasting serum TAG, the TAG/HDL-C ratio, postprandial lipemia, serum glucose, an increase in LDL particle size, and also greater weight loss (P < 0.05).

²⁸ Evidence type: uncontrolled trial
Long term effects of ketogenic diet in obese subjects with high cholesterol level. Dashti HM, Al-Zaid NS, Mathew TC, Al-Mousawi M, Talib H, Asfar SK, Behbahani AI. Mol Cell Biochem. 2006 Jun;286(1-2):1-9. Epub 2006 Apr 21.

In this study, 66 healthy obese subjects with body mass index (BMI) greater than 30, having high cholesterol level (Group I; n = 35) and those subjects with normal cholesterol level (Group II; n = 31) were selected. The body weight, body mass index, total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, urea, creatinine, glucose and triglycerides were determined before and after the administration of the ketogenic diet. Changes in these parameters were monitored at 8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48 and 56 weeks of the treatment.

RESULTS: The body weight and body mass index of both groups decreased significantly (P < 0.0001). The level of total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides and blood glucose level decreased significantly (P < 0.0001), whereas HDL cholesterol increased significantly (P < 0.0001) after the treatment in both groups.

CONCLUSION: This study shows the beneficial effects of ketogenic diet following its long term administration in obese subjects with a high level of total cholesterol. Moreover, this study demonstrates that low carbohydrate diet is safe to use for a longer period of time in obese subjects with a high total cholesterol level and those with normocholesterolemia.

²⁹ Evidence type: randomized controlled trial
Weight loss with a low-carbohydrate, Mediterranean, or low-fat diet. Shai I, Schwarzfuchs D, Henkin Y, Shahar DR, Witkow S, Greenberg I, Golan R, Fraser D, Bolotin A, Vardi H, Tangi-Rozental O, Zuk-Ramot R, Sarusi B, Brickner D, Schwartz Z, Sheiner E, Marko R, Katorza E, Thiery J, Fiedler GM, Blüher M, Stumvoll M, Stampfer MJ; Dietary Intervention Randomized Controlled Trial (DIRECT) Group. N Engl J Med. 2008 Jul 17;359(3):229-41. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa0708681.

Changes in lipid profiles during the weight-loss and maintenance phases are shown in Figure 3. HDL cholesterol (Figure 3A) increased during the weight-loss and maintenance phases in all groups, with the greatest increase in the low-carbohydrate group (8.4 mg per deciliter [0.22 mmol per liter], P<0.01 for the interaction between diet group and time), as compared with the low-fat group (6.3 mg per deciliter [0.16 mmol per liter]). Triglyceride levels (Figure 3B) decreased significantly in the low-carbohydrate group (23.7 mg per deciliter [0.27 mmol per liter], P=0.03 for the interaction between diet group and time), as compared with the low-fat group (2.7 mg per deciliter [0.03 mmol per liter]). LDL cholesterol levels (Figure 3C) did not change significantly within groups, and there were no significant differences between the groups in the amount of change. Overall, the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol (Figure 3D) decreased during both the weight-loss and the maintenance phases. The low-carbohydrate group had the greatest improvement, with a relative decrease of 20% (P=0.01 for the interaction between diet group and time), as compared with a decrease of 12% in the low-fat group.

³⁰ Evidence type: review
Influence of dietary carbohydrate and fat on LDL and HDL particle distributions. Siri PW, Krauss RM. Curr Atheroscler Rep. 2005 Nov;7(6):455-9.

Variations in the size and density distributions of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles have been related to risk for cardiovascular disease. In particular, increased levels of small, dense LDL particles, together with reduced levels of large HDL and increases in small HDL, are integral features of the atherogenic dyslipidemia found in patients with insulin resistance, obesity, and metabolic syndrome. Increased dietary carbohydrates, particularly simple sugars and starches with high glycemic index, can increase levels of small, dense LDL and HDL, primarily by mechanisms that involve increasing plasma triglyceride concentrations. Low-carbohydrate diets may have the opposite effects. Diets with differing fatty acid composition can also influence LDL and HDL particle distributions.

³¹ Evidence type: controlled experiment
Carbohydrate restriction has a more favorable impact on the metabolic syndrome than a low fat diet. Volek JS, Phinney SD, Forsythe CE, Quann EE, Wood RJ, Puglisi MJ, Kraemer WJ, Bibus DM, Fernandez ML, Feinman RD. Lipids. 2009 Apr;44(4):297-309. doi: 10.1007/s11745-008-3274-2. Epub 2008 Dec 12.

Abstract

We recently proposed that the biological markers improved by carbohydrate restriction were precisely those that define the metabolic syndrome (MetS), and that the common thread was regulation of insulin as a control element. We specifically tested the idea with a 12-week study comparing two hypocaloric diets (approximately 1,500 kcal): a carbohydrate-restricted diet (CRD) (%carbohydrate:fat:protein = 12:59:28) and a low-fat diet (LFD) (56:24:20) in 40 subjects with atherogenic dyslipidemia. Both interventions led to improvements in several metabolic markers, but subjects following the CRD had consistently reduced glucose (-12%) and insulin (-50%) concentrations, insulin sensitivity (-55%), weight loss (-10%), decreased adiposity (-14%), and more favorable triacylglycerol (TAG) (-51%), HDL-C (13%) and total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio (-14%) responses. In addition to these markers for MetS, the CRD subjects showed more favorable responses to alternative indicators of cardiovascular risk: postprandial lipemia (-47%), the Apo B/Apo A-1 ratio (-16%), and LDL particle distribution. Despite a threefold higher intake of dietary saturated fat during the CRD, saturated fatty acids in TAG and cholesteryl ester were significantly decreased, as was palmitoleic acid (16:1n-7), an endogenous marker of lipogenesis, compared to subjects consuming the LFD. Serum retinol binding protein 4 has been linked to insulin-resistant states, and only the CRD decreased this marker (-20%). The findings provide support for unifying the disparate markers of MetS and for the proposed intimate connection with dietary carbohydrate. The results support the use of dietary carbohydrate restriction as an effective approach to improve features of MetS and cardiovascular risk.

³² Evidence type: randomized controlled trial
Effect of a low-carbohydrate, ketogenic diet program compared to a low-fat diet on fasting lipoprotein subclasses. Westman EC, Yancy WS Jr, Olsen MK, Dudley T, Guyton JR. Int J Cardiol. 2006 Jun 16;110(2):212-6. Epub 2005 Nov 16.

Comparing baseline to 6 months, the LCKD [low carb ketogenic diet] group had significant changes in large VLDL (-78%), medium VLDL (-60%), small VLDL (-57%), LDL particle size (+2%), large LDL (+54%), medium LDL (-42%), small LDL (-78%), HDL particle size (+5%), large HDL (+21%), and LDL particle concentration (-11%).

...

CONCLUSIONS: The LCKD with nutritional supplementation led to beneficial changes in serum lipid subclasses during weight loss. While the LCKD did not lower total LDL cholesterol, it did result in a shift from small, dense LDL to large, buoyant LDL, which could lower cardiovascular disease risk.

³³ Evidence type: longitudinal analysis
Change in LDL particle size is associated with change in plasma triglyceride concentration. McNamara JR, Jenner JL, Li Z, Wilson PW, Schaefer EJ. Arterioscler Thromb. 1992 Nov;12(11):1284-90.

Low density lipoprotein (LDL) particle size is inversely associated with plasma triglyceride concentration in cross-sectional analyses. In the present study, changes in the LDL particle size of 227 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study were analyzed longitudinally by nondenaturing gradient gel electrophoresis at two examinations that were separated by 3-4 years. All subjects had triglyceride concentrations < 400 mg/dl at both exams. Using laser scanning densitometry to assess mean LDL particle size, 56% of samples displayed a change in size: 41% had a one-band size change, 13% had a two-band change, and 2% had a three-band change. These changes in size corresponded to a 15% change in pattern type, based on pattern A and B terminology. There was a significant inverse association between change in LDL size and change in triglyceride (p < 0.0001) and glucose (p < 0.004) concentrations, body weight (p < 0.02), and age (p < 0.03). There was also a significant positive association with change in high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol concentration (p < 0.0001).

³⁴ Evidence type: observational
Ratio of triglycerides to HDL cholesterol is an indicator of LDL particle size in patients with type 2 diabetes and normal HDL cholesterol levels. Boizel R, Benhamou PY, Lardy B, Laporte F, Foulon T, Halimi S. Diabetes Care. 2000 Nov;23(11):1679-85.

LDL size correlated negatively with plasma triglycerides (TGs) (R2 = 0.52) and positively with HDL cholesterol (R2 = 0.14). However, an inverse correlation between the TG-to-HDL cholesterol molar ratio and LDL size was even stronger (R2 = 0.59). The ratio was > 1.33 in 90% of the patients with small LDL particles (95% CI 79.3-100) and 16.5% of those with larger LDL particles. A cutoff point of 1.33 for the TG-to-HDL cholesterol ratio distinguishes between patients having small LDL values better than TG cutoff of 1.70 and 1.45 mmol/l.

CONCLUSIONS: The TG-to-HDL cholesterol ratio may be related to the processes involved in LDL size pathophysiology and relevant with regard to the risk of clinical vascular disease. It may be suitable for the selection of patients needing an earlier and aggressive treatment of lipid abnormalities.

³⁵ Evidence type: observational
Assessment of LDL particle size by triglyceride/HDL-cholesterol ratio in non-diabetic, healthy subjects without prominent hyperlipidemia. Maruyama C, Imamura K, Teramoto T. J Atheroscler Thromb. 2003;10(3):186-91.

Abstract

Small, dense low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is an atherogenic lipoprotein because of its susceptibility to oxidative modification. However, evaluating LDL size requires highly sophisticated techniques. We investigated potentially convenient biochemical parameters for assessing the presence of small, dense LDL. Thirty-nine male subjects, who had been involved in a work-site health promotion program, were recruited. Subjects were divided into two groups: normal LDL size (> 25.5 nm, Normal LDL group) and small LDL (< /= 25.5 nm, Small LDL group). Significant negative correlations were observed between LDL size and both triglyceride (TG) (p <0.001) and remnant-like particle cholesterol concentrations (p < 0.01), while there was a significant positive correlation between LDL size and the high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentration (p < 0.01). The TG concentration was a negative and the HDL-C concentration a positive independent variable predicting LDL size in multiple regression analysis (p < 0.0001). Seventy-five percent of the Small LDL group had TG/HDL-C ratios higher than 0.9 using mmol/L or 2.0 using mg/dL, while only 25% of the normal LDL group had ratios above the levels (p = 0.0013). A combined parameter, the TG/HDL-C ratio, is beneficial for assessing the presence of small LDL.

³⁶ Evidence type: review of experiments
Low-carbohydrate diet review: shifting the paradigm. Hite AH, Berkowitz VG, Berkowitz K. Nutr Clin Pract. 2011 Jun;26(3):300-8. doi: 10.1177/0884533611405791.

Note that there is an error in the text accompanying this figure (not visible in our image). The data is attributed to a study by Jakobsen et al., but it comes from the study in ³¹, by Volek et al.